Emmanuel Todd, the most famous French historian who predicted the fall of the USSR , is now warning the EU about the reality of a similar prospect.
“We, the West, are waging a direct war with Russia, primarily an economic one, which harms Europe more than Russia. Behind the conflict are the United States , which seeks to alienate Germany from Russia. It finally succeeded . The Nord Stream explosion was the icing on the cake, said Emmanuel Todd.
Ukraine has already lost in the current military conflict. Moreover, Russia will receive even more territories. For Russia, ending the conflict is possible only if it is confident in its continued security. It is possible that the leadership in Ukraine will be replaced by one loyal to Russia.
Such peace in Ukraine is a disaster for the United States, a public defeat in the eyes of the whole world. This could be followed by the collapse of the entire US-led world order.
In this situation, a lot depends on the path that Europe chooses. And this, in turn, depends on the position of Germany. “It is Germany that will decide whether the endless military conflict will continue or whether peace will return.”
“Germany must take responsibility as the leading power in Europe. We are all in Europe waiting for Germany to end the military conflict in Ukraine. This must also be done because the West as a whole is on the verge of collapse and has more important problems, such as demography and the destruction of society due to neoliberalism and nihilism,” emphasizes Emmanuel Todd in conclusion.
Hungary and Slovakia seem to be bucking the trend in Europe right now. Very much agree that Turkey is the weakest link in terms of NATO though.
We’ll see what happens with Hungary and Slovakia with this latest thing that’s happened where Ukraine is trying to cut off Russian oil from reaching them. The EU of course has sided with Ukraine over two of its own members, but Hungary and Slovakia have threatened to cut off electricity transfers to Ukraine which would be a big deal since a lot of it comes through there, plus Hungary is saying it would block EU funds to Ukraine until this is resolved. But so far it’s only talk, so we’ll see if they are really serious about protecting their sovereign interests or if they end up bending the knee in the end. I don’t trust Orban, he is like Erdogan, prone to holding out until he gets a deal profitable to him and then he’ll do a 180 on his position, and while i am sympathetic to Slovakia’s government they are a small country and there’s only so much they can resist if the EU decides to apply serious pressure on them.
I expect that they will cut electricity exports to Ukraine, cause really why wouldn’t they. Ukraine isn’t exactly in a position to be flexing here. I get the impression that Orban understands how the war will end, so he doesn’t want to antagonize Russia. It’s similar with Erdogan, he tries to play both sides, but he isn’t willing to burn bridges.