Does anyone find the fact that Russian is using North Korea to escalate right when the US election is taking place as too coincidental?
I have thought for a while that the only reason Russia had such a shit show operation in the early days of the Russo-Ukrainian invasion was because Putin was expecting Trump to win reelection and they’d have more time to bolster an offensive with western ambivalence, and thus a toothless NATO response. When Trump lost, it was shit-or-get-off-the-pot time for Putin.
If Trump wins the election, Putin will have a US Lukashenko and Ukraine loses a significant amount of funding and military equipment support. If Harris wins, they’ll be looking down the barrel of continued Western Ukrainian support and need to accelerate their plans to try to end the conflict as swiftly as possible.
Bringing North Korea into this sets the stage for North Korea to gain Russian military tech to support its aggression against South Korea. That conflict draws US support, which gives China leeway to invade Taiwan, Iran and associates to invade Israel, and the world to divide itself into axis and allied powers. Is WW3 set to take off after the election?
I guess what I’m saying is, it takes a few days if not weeks to mobilize large troop deployments. Are we seeing that right now, in anticipation of Putin not getting what he wants out of the US election?
I don’t agree with your assessment of how things will shake out. The primary concern of north and south korea fighting in ukraine (I need a new bingo card) is that the fighting could trigger N Korean attacks at the boarder, which will destabilize the region, and allow China’s neighbors to step up their military positions for legitimate cause.
China’s window to attack Taiwan was after Russia took Ukraine - now they are probably recalculating their plans and building a billion drones. That should hold for a while.
My largest concern is trump winning, and europe finding an excuse to trigger article 5, dragging us all into war, so that trump either abandons the alliance and diminishes the US world standing (or biden if he refuses to aid). European nations know ukraine isn’t the first and isn’t the last, and they might as well fight a crippled russia when the US might intercede. If the US did blink, we’d see a loss of allies and Taiwan might as well assume they’re gone in 30 years, as Europe would ignore US aid requests.
Two can play this game, Vlad. Also how did this become a Western proxy war and an Eastern price war at the same time?
South Korean president has been sitting on the fence for too long and now his neighbors have forced him to take a stance. But worst case scenario would be to have south Korean troops in Ukraine fighting a proxy way just because Korea is not NATO
… what? Korea hasn’t existed since 1945. North Korea isn’t part of NATO, sure. But South Korea IS part of NATO.
So, I’m unclear what you mean.
South Korea is just a “global partner” and protections afforded by NATO article 5 do not extend into “global partners”, only to “full members”. So, from a NATO perspective, it would be very convenient to send South Korean troops (or from any other non-NATO country) to reinforce Ukraine and avoid triggering Putin’s claims of direct NATO involvement. In any case, South Korean cooperation would be needed to help handle an eventual influx of North Korean defectors and POWs
South Korea has a lot of useful equipment and the supply chains (factories) to build a lot of it. That equipment is what Ukraine needs more than anything, ideally at a low price (or under generous loan terms)
