• otp@sh.itjust.works
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    5 months ago

    Its not as if incumbents with approvals this low haven’t competed. They have.

    And he’s up against a convicted felon. And we have the data on it. You don’t win the presidency with a felony conviction.

    • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
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      5 months ago

      against a convicted felon. And we have the data on it. You don’t win the presidency with a felony conviction.

      I mean the felon part actually would be in bounds of the logic of the comic. We can’t observe the probability of a felon getting elected because it hasn’t occurred before, and therefore we can’t calculate a statistic.

        • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
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          5 months ago

          Its a divide by 0. We can absolutely put down a probability of Bidens likelihood to win based on current polling or approval, because we have an N to divide by.

          We don’t have an N to divide by in the felony issue (or any of the issues cited in the comic), and so can’t calculate a probability.

          • otp@sh.itjust.works
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            5 months ago

            “X has never happened (until it happened)” is literally the point of the comic.

            It’s not a divide by zero problem because we’re looking at all the presidents for a given criteria. N is the number of presidents elected.

            Every one of those blurbs, and the two additional ones suggested here, are a situation where N equals the number of prior presidential elections. And all of them are 0%, because the listed criteria were always 0/N.

              • otp@sh.itjust.works
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                5 months ago

                It seems like you’re purposely ignoring the point of the comic (highlighting the fallacy pertaining to things that never happened before) so that you can continue to believe that the probability of something that never happened before is greater than the probability of something that never happened before.

                • TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world
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                  5 months ago

                  Oh my good clam-baking mullet wearing jesus my dude.

                  Why is it always projection with you people?

                  The thing that has never happened: a felon is a candidate. We have no information on this or how it will impact the results of a presidential campaign.

                  You want to interpret this as a result, but you shouldn’t. We have no data here.