India is a real risk and I wish they were not in BRICS. They are under the sway of religious fundamentalist reactionaries. They have a seething hatred for China both on ideological grounds and because they have a border dispute that they are in the wrong on and will never budge on for that reason and also for reasons of jealousy, China’s socialist governance has delivered transformative results and made them a power while India has lagged behind despite both starting at the near the same position at the end of the colonial era. Their past friendship with Russia is transactional and coasting on old vibes and some present benefits for things like military tech. If anyone is going to plant a knife in the back of BRICS it will be India.
They see themselves as a rival to China and I think at the end of the day see things closer to US terms, yes they understand that the US doesn’t have their interests in mind but they want to undermine China for their own success and because they border them and have aspirations to be a regional power and China’s rise threatens their own sense of power. The US knows this and seeks to use them to check China.
They refuse to use yuan for trade because it empowers China and they can’t brook that. Russia can’t have them use rubles because there is nothing to do with it given their trade imbalance. Rupees are not a solution given that same trade imbalance.
They are compared to even a capitalist power like Russia, unreliable because of these and other reasons. I could see them absolutely being goaded into a war with China by the west.
Unlike Russia and China which have been forced together by the west’s actions and are no longer fair-weather friends, India is still very much in that category and I think it would bite its tongue to not warn Russia of the west approaching it from behind with a knife and gladly plant a knife in China’s back if it thought it could gain some medium-term advantage. They after all stand to benefit most from a hypothetical decoupling from China by the west and a hypothetical re-shoring to India. Given their similar population size it’s not a situation like some smaller country like Vietnam benefiting from a bit of manufacturing being moved while still remaining integrated by necessity with a larger partner like China.
It’s really interesting that I see more cheap manufacturing from India now than anywhere else but I still see everyone complain about cheap “chinesium” stuff. The same goes for outsourcing. IT and remote roles have been heavily outsourced to India but you never see the news talk about India “stealing American jobs.” It’s only ever China. The west sees India as an ally and the news supports this. Same with scam calling businesses. Always based out of India yet the news screams about Chinese scammers all the time. I have spent months looking for a new job and noticed an increasing number of recruiters that are from India. I have noticed that the jobs they recruit for are always very poorly paid with little or no benefits. Seeing an Indian based recruiter has become an immediate turn off for me because it’s a sign that the hiring company is outsourcing it’s recruiting to the lowest possible bid and if they are doing that then they will be offering terrible pay and no benefits, and I haven’t been wrong in this yet.
The west also constantly front the “Chinese businessmen are taking over American companies” bullshit. I have worked for several large pharmaceutical companies in the west for the past couple decades and can tell you I have not seen a single higher up from China. I have however seen many higher ups replaced with India nationals. The company then slowly gets filled with contractors that are all also Indians. My current company is falling apart because they are replacing direct hired labor with contract agency people. All Indian, making like $250 an hour, and they do nothing. The just ask the remaining direct hires to help them with projects then take credit. I have other direct hire colleagues that are Indian and talk about the scams that are being run. Most all of these higher ups come over from wealthy, high cast families and get director and CEO jobs out of pure nepotism then gut the companies by spending excessive amounts on India based contract agencies. My current company is going bankrupt yet they keep hiring more and more contractors paying over 8 times a direct hires salary per person. Our company had 70% of the laboratory management walk out because the new Indian direct wanted them to falsify documents to say a product failed because of our testing and was actually ok to sell. Products that are injectable medications.
Basically what I’m getting at is, it’s easy to see the western capitalists see India as an ally, as much of the stuff they blame on China, stealing jobs, cheap manufacturing, scams, etc, are all far more prevalent from India yet nothing is ever said about it. It feels like Western Capitalism is quietly trying to move to India and use China as the scapegoat. They see the failing of the US, and that China will be the new world power. It’s inevitable. So they are trying to get in good and turn India into their new safe haven. At least this is how I see it. I don’t trust India in BRICS, but maybe I’m wrong and biased. I am not so full of myself to not know i have developed a bias over there years. I have just been seeing first hand some of the stuff going on over the years and this is the only way I can reason it.
I see this larger plan coming together. When China agreed to be exploited by the west to get their MOP they didn’t have the plans for MOP, they couldn’t build the machinery or processes if they wanted to. Despite exporting the physical machinery or much of it and the processes the west still has the plans and in fact much of what the west now makes is various parts of the machinery of production which is up the value and even tech chain from the products themselves in many places. So it’s not necessary for them to take all of the MOP or even most of it from China and put it somewhere else physically.
Mark my words, if they try it they aren’t going to wait, nor do they need to, for all supply chains to be replaced. The world won’t end, reign of the bourgeoisie won’t end if suddenly there are supply shortages in the west. We saw it with covid, they just used it as an excuse to fire more people and raise prices and profit margins. And by and large the western proletariat will take it, will believe they’ve lost nothing more than low quality slave labor in losing Chinese goods. They’ll wait patiently to get on a payment plan that equals out to $1500 for a new iPhone over 2 years and blame China for it and foreigners as usual by design. They’ll seek to support an increase in the exploitation of the lowest rungs of society, of the minimum wage and gig workers, of the global south to bolster their own positions economically and happily support in power and action reactionary policies, crackdowns on labor, expansion of imperialist practices and violence (including at home), coups, color revolutions, operation freedomburger 5.0, etc.
The only thing they’re really left waiting on which can’t be gotten around is chips supply which is why they’re trying and failing to set up fabs in the US. But that doesn’t matter, India, occupied Korea, both happy to oblige the US in setting up fabs with horrible working conditions for the US and at the end of the day the US can probably just import a bunch of Indian workers on visas to run its own ill conceived fabs. TSMC is probably slow-walking it but they can’t delay forever and there are competitors like Samsung and other occupied Korean giants to consider.
India’s true success and rising as a capitalist nation under a caste-loving religious extremist ideology is built off, must be built off the back of Chinese decline and isolation and I feel they know this so at the end of the day their fortune is not with BRICS, only if the west completely collapsed and there was no hope of taking China’s manufacturing and getting western investment would it be the case that BRICS would hold more appeal. The pull from the west, serving to undermine China and BRICS as a whole is why India is a poison pill within it. They seek their own power, their own way as they put it in the cold war, but that way is at the expense of others, happily on their backs and corpses, it’s about India for only India unlike China’s philosophy or even some of what Russia does to curry favor with other nations that the USSR historically had good relations with in order to hold onto some power as a rising nation.
They must not be trusted. It is not wise or anything but hopium to claim they’re on the verge of a communist take-over. It’s not going to happen. I’ve heard too many comrades from India talk of the colonized mindset of other Indians, add in a backwards reactionary system like the caste system and their religious reactionary tendencies, add in jealousy towards China a very similar power who did better than them and is like a more successful neighbor they’re bitter towards, add in how good at suppressing communism they west has gotten and I just don’t see India as anything but at best a thorn in the side.
After all they started out humiliated and formerly colonized just like China yet in the cold war they didn’t have a communist revolution despite being really close to the USSR, in the 70 years since they haven’t had one and are no closer to having one, they’re farther I’d say in fact. The Hindu idea of reincarnation and of people being born into a place they deserve based off past lives (excuse me if I am mixing up Buddhism here, I’m not positive) is very reactionary, it like the Protestant work ethic demands hard labor in this life for a shot at a better life next go around or after the death, it says those in lower castes or positions are there for a reason and it is not the place of man to question god(s). Both are very effective inoculations against class consciousness and proletarian power.
The road ahead is a very rocky and hard one, I see many places that could lead to the entire world falling into barbarity and perpetual darkness. I trust Russia much further than India based purely off the benefits each stands to gain from different orders of the world gaining or losing power.
While I largely agree with your assessment. I still think it’s better to have India in BRICS because that’s already creating tensions with the west. India’s economic interests will ultimately drive the policy in the long run. I think it’s entirely possible that India will also have positive political change in the future. BJP is already losing popularity, they didn’t do nearly as well in the last election, and the trend is likely to continue. Meanwhile, communists are doing well in Kerala and becoming more and more popular.
BJP is already losing popularity, they didn’t do nearly as well in the last election
Congress is gonna be a disaster too, it’s run by a literal white woman
the memes alone would spark political instabilitylol yeah
The Congress hasn’t been run by Sonia Ghandi for over two years at this point. She stepped down in 2022.
communists are doing well in Kerala and becoming more and more popular.
I will be honest, the chances of the communist party becoming even remotely nationally relevant in the next 10 years is 0. Kerala has been communist since forever and infact this election is the first time the right wing fascist party was able to get a seat in kerala banking of anti incumbency. Agree on the BJP’s declining popularity but worryingly through the south which has been the bastion against BJP so far is slowly starting to become more radicalised and BJP is starting to win here while they lose their grip on the north. And also, while it’s true that there’s a large anti china sentiment unless the current govt. decides to do something so as to retain power, India had a consistent policy of maintining multi polaritym, that shouldn’t be a problem.
communists are doing well in Kerala and becoming more and more popular.
More and more popular as in potentially spreading to other states?
Communists parties already have significant support in a number of other states, so hopefully the support keeps growing.
and because they have a border dispute that they are in the wrong on
How are they in the wrong?
Because the land that India is claiming was stolen from Tibet under threat of force from the British Empire, and the treaty that signed over the land was never ratified by any Chinese government. Hence why China reoccupied the territory when Tibet was integrated.
The UN internationally recognized the land as Chinese.
India is attempting to enrich themselves on a product of imperialism to which they have no legal or mora claim to.
idrc about what the brits say
Arunachal is very clearly part of the Indian landmass
It never was and is recognized by the UN and China as such. It was stolen from China by the British Empire and the Chinese took it back. It was historically never part of any Indian governance. It was always under the leadership of the Dalai Lama and Tibet.
I legitimately cannot believe that you are supporting the actions of the British Empire and its imperialism.
I’m not pilled on the whole thing because there are multiple points of disputes. But if you look at Aksai Chin on the map it is literally between Xinjiang and Tibet so India claiming it is strange to put it simply.
I don’t think they necessarily embrace it, as much as they reluctantly shake hands with it…
Russia wants its crude oil buyers to pay in Chinese yuan or Russian ruble. Both nations are trying to convince other SCO members to abandon the US dollar in favor of local currencies.
India is not happy with this push. The Modi administration is committed to using the US dollar and is not interested in adopting the Chinese yuan for payments. India saved $7 billion in exchange rates by paying for Russian oil in yuan and rubles in 2022.
Idk why, lmao…
I definitely think that India embraces multipolarity because India also sees itself as a great power. They understand that they will always be second class in a US dominated world.
India not wanting to adopt yuan for payments is more of India not wanting Chinese currency to become stronger since they have a somewhat tense relationship. My expectation is that BRICS countries will figure out something along the lines of Bancor sooner than later, and that will solve the problem of moving away from the dollar as a trade currency. The other advantage will be that it will create a huge incentive for more countries to join BRICS.
Well, I hope so…
