Author: Unknown
Published on: 11/01/2025 | 00:00:00

AI Summary:
US leaders, along with Israelis, have been openly discussing military strikes on top Iranian nuclear facilities and critical infrastructure. Iran’s leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, remain defiant, and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have held large-scale military exercises, predominantly focusing on defending sensitive sites. Iran has lost one of the tenets of its forward defence strategy with the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. Iran is also labouring under extensive sanctions that are negatively affecting its already embattled economy, plummeting national currency and high inflation. But no new framework has taken shape yet, and any talks so far appear to have been consultations aimed at clarifying viewpoints. The Europeans are going to be much more aligned to whatever policy the US chooses. This year should see major developments that will better clarify the direction of Iran’s nuclear programme. As such, Europe will be spending the time left until October to prevent escalation and push for diplomacy. Iranian nuclear activity may slightly cool if the US prioritises diplomatic talks aimed at de-escalation. Iran would have to design and assemble a weapon, integrate it with a long-range missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. We are in a short-term holding pattern as Trump takes power is days away.

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