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Cake day: February 29th, 2024

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  • Any peace deal that doesn’t involve Russia leaving behind all Ukrainian territory rewards Putin’s Russia for their invasion. IMO Russia should have to at least pull back to the borders that existed before the 2022 offensive. Of course I’m not in a position to make decisions if it’s a bitter pill that must be taken, but real gains for Russia will be proof that aggression worked.

    Also, peace doesn’t need a specific broker. If an international effort including China, or even led by them, can broker a good deal then so be it. Maybe China’s relationship with Russia makes talks more likely to be productive. I can’t think of an explanation as to why a US-led deal with the same terms would be inherently better (that isn’t just nationalism/pride and much less important than halting war).



  • There is no way that murdering top Iranian officials in an Iranian embassy on Syrian soil was ever going to be anything but a gauntlet thrown down. If it was almost any other country than Israel the world would be outraged. Countries like the USA and Germany didn’t pull support because of things like destroying hospitals and killing innocents, so bombing the embassy of a country as reviled as Iran inside Syria wasn’t going to stop them.

    Netanyahu knows his days in power are done very shortly after Israel leaves a condition of all-out war. Biden has told him that, his polls tell him that, and protestors tell him that. I think he’s poking the local bears to escalate and stay in power by extending the conflict. Both Biden and Trump have promised support so Netanyahu is acting with the backing of the world’s largest military no matter who wins. Pulling the USA and other Western countries into another war in the Middle East is his best bet of pushing that day of reckoning way down the road.