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Cake day: December 14th, 2023

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  • Probably something like the smaller producers sold locally, governing their prices in part by what bigger producers set. Meanwhile, large producers could likely pay for the price discovery, individually or in a group, or they had many contacts which allowed them to have an idea of what would be fair. But it was likely the US was stealing quite a lot as middlemen, which can now be at least atenuated somewhat by having many people trading directly and perhaps even more “state help” to figure out good prices long term.

    I would be interested in understanding this better as well, and nice to see that the new system is already being used. Whoever is not using the new system yet will likely do the math to see how good it will be for them.

    Edit to add another point: Large producers would likely buy smaller local producers’ production as well in case the export price was good, so the smaller producers would increase their prices when they knew the bigger producers were buying a lot.



  • That’s my thinking as well. I am actually kinda expecting them to do something as they had been responding to attacks on their refineries and looking at the ammount of refinneries, air bases and other things that have been hit recently toghether with the whole Kursk incursion and the west giving green light for the use of their weapons inside Russia, they kinda of are pressed to do what could be the biggest attack since the war started, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they just pretend nothing of this happened too and just continue pushing in the east as they may think they will win soon.

    But if they do actually do something perhaps they could take the opportunity to do it at the same time as Iran and Yemen, and even others as well, to really show that a red line has been crossed.



  • I guess there might have been some confusion from what I said to here.

    I never said the Ukrainian puppet regime would never do something like irradiating Russia and Europe by blowing up a nuclear power plant, I just said that if they were going to bomb a nuclear power plant, releasing a lot of nuclear materials, there was no reason for them to go out of their way to get more nuclear materials to throw at it as just blowing it up conventionally would already be spreading a lot of radiation and adding more would likely not even make a difference.

    So, either they would be attacking the nuclear power plant with conventional weapons or they would get nuclear materials to attack a city with a dirty bomb, but there is no need to attack a nuclear power plant with a dirty bomb as it is redundant and counter productive, so it might be that the news is either really bad propaganda or mistranslated/misreported.


  • The attack is intended to use radioactive warheads to target spent fuel storage sites at a nuclear power plant, and the ammunition has already been delivered to Zhovti Vody.

    Where do I even begin to talk about how dumb this is?

    It’s like saying you will make nerve agent just so you can bomb a nerve agent plant. It doesn’t make sense. Not even for the Ukrainian regime.

    I guess you could add extra radioatice stuff to make sure it to gets mixed with everything else at the target site, but if you just use normal shells/bombs you can at least claim it was a mistake, so I really don’t see how this makes sense as is.

    If they want to bomb a nuclear power plant normal bombs, perhaps bunker busters, sufice. There is no need to do any more than that.

    The only reason I can see for them to be searching for “radioactive materials” to target the plant it would be if they wanted spent uranium rounds, but that wouldn’t be used because it is radioactive but because it is “harder”.

    So, either this is some dumb propaganda piece, some even dumber plan, or some dumb reporting or translation on what should be really serious.



  • Id argue its a sign of Ukraine trying to come to the table with a deal for peace that involves returning the contested border regions in the north (Russia recently pushed in further east, the trade will be for these two regions) and then likely peace on the current lines on the east.

    I really doubt it as Russia is simply unlikely to accept a peace deal right after this attack, as they have already said, and specially if you also take into account that they had already said they would only accept a cease fire if Ukraine moved out of the oblasts that Russia is occupying partially in Ukraine.

    As for what happens now, it seems Ukraine has already been mostly stopped so once things stabilize Russia will either push back as they have elsewhere or they will just hold favourable ground and let Ukraine pour as much resources there as they have, as they have been shown to pursue “PR victories” to try to prove their worth to the west so they will give Ukraine more resources to continue fighting.

    Russia may also decide that with this incursion on their land it’s worth it to further attack Ukraine’s rear, like finishing off their non-nuclear power plants and perhaps might make Russia decide that they want more land out of this as well due to increased public support for the operation following the attack in Russia.







  • I’m more optimistic about France in the near term actually.

    Don’t know how exactly that would work out but I agree that this seems possible.

    It’s going to take an economic collapse for the Germans to get their heads out of their asses though.

    If the war in Ukraine ends wihin the next year or so they might escape that, if Russia doesn’t continue puting pressure on Europe (by helping Yemen/Palestine and the decolonization of Africa, for example) that is.

    But if Germany and Europe continue feeling the pressure then things might happen within the next couple of elections, perhaps even before a hard collapse although likely through fascism, so we need to be vigilant.


  • Just the other day I joked about Japan joining BRICS and this could be one step in that direction.

    Now I’m wondering what would be the first ex-US state to join. lol

    Either way, it will be interesting to see what happens with Taiwan as the US is turning its focus on China. Although unlikely I guess we can’t rule out conflict starting not because of Taiwan being used against China but due to Taiwan going back to China and the US not liking it, even if it takes a decade.

    It’s really hard to predict the future when things are so “chaotic”.