4th and 5, the national championship on the line right here…

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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: August 13th, 2023

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  • My ballot – still a little weird from preseason expectations, but that’s mostly factored out now. The bigger issue is that 2-3 weeks of data is too small a sample size for the computer to know what to do with. Teams that played P4 teams are very high (even if they lost), whereas teams that played FCS schools are very low (even if they blew them out). Teams that already had a bye are even lower (exacerbated by this season having an extra bye week). It should all be sorted out in a couple weeks.

    I will say, by eye test I really disagree with some of these rankings (I mean, ou up to number 4???) but I find the pure data intriguing, especially for spots 40ish through 134 which a lot of people ignore. I’m considering a few tweaks (to diminish the effects of garbage time stat padding), but it would make the algorithm more complex. Without fully automating it, I need to keep it simple enough to tabulate semi-manually every week. Hoping I can use next offseason to tinker with some scripts.

    Full ranking:
    Rank Change Team Record Points
    1 +1 Texas 2-0 461
    2 -1 Georgia 2-0 438
    3 +2 Ohio State 2-0 375
    4 +3 Oklahoma 2-0 347
    5 +1 Penn State 2-0 339
    6 +5 USC 2-0 338
    7 -4 Oregon 2-0 323
    8 -4 Florida State 0-2 314
    9 +7 Georgia Tech 2-1 309
    10 +0 SMU 2-1 305
    11 -2 Notre Dame 1-1 302
    12 -4 Miami (FL) 2-0 300
    13 +9 Alabama 2-0 286
    14 +13 Nebraska 2-0 279
    15 +3 Clemson 1-1 277
    16 +22 Tennessee 2-0 271
    17 +6 Ole Miss 2-0 270
    18 +1 Louisville 2-0 267
    19 +9 Maryland 1-1 261
    T20 +5 Missouri 2-0 258
    T20 -8 Texas A&M 1-1 258
    22 -10 LSU 1-1 257
    23 +1 Virginia Tech 1-1 256
    24 -9 Michigan 1-1 253
    25 +21 South Carolina 2-0 252
    26 -6 Oklahoma State 2-0 251
    T27 -7 Iowa State 2-0 250
    T27 +9 North Carolina 2-0 250
    T27 -11 Iowa 1-1 250
    30 +7 Boise State 1-1 244
    31 +1 Utah 2-0 242
    T32 -18 Wisconsin 2-0 237
    T32 +0 Boston College 2-0 237
    T32 +11 Syracuse 2-0 237
    35 -10 Kentucky 1-1 236
    36 -6 Kansas State 2-0 232
    37 -6 Kansas 1-1 231
    T38 +11 Rutgers 2-0 225
    T38 +23 Arizona State 2-0 225
    40 -5 Auburn 1-1 221
    41 +14 UCF 2-0 218
    42 +8 Northwestern 1-1 217
    T43 +8 California 2-0 216
    T43 +17 Nevada 2-0 216
    T43 +34 Northern Illinois 1-2 216
    T46 +12 Texas State 2-0 213
    T46 +24 Pittsburgh 2-0 213
    48 -5 Liberty 2-0 210
    49 -4 UNLV 2-0 209
    50 -12 Arizona 2-0 207
    51 -17 West Virginia 1-1 201
    T52 -5 Indiana 2-0 200
    T52 -23 Miami (OH) 0-1 200
    54 +4 Houston 0-2 198
    T55 +8 Memphis 2-0 197
    T55 +9 Duke 2-0 197
    T55 +13 Illinois 2-0 197
    58 -6 TCU 2-0 196
    59 +5 Washington 2-0 195
    T60 +13 Louisiana 2-0 194
    T60 -13 Minnesota 1-1 194
    62 -22 Florida 1-1 193
    63 -22 Fresno State 1-1 192
    64 +0 Old Dominion 0-2 190
    T65 +30 Washington State 2-0 187
    T65 -11 Colorado 1-1 187
    67 +32 Michigan State 2-0 185
    68 +7 Toledo 2-0 184
    69 +15 Oregon State 2-0 181
    70 +1 Bowling Green 1-1 180
    T71 -30 Appalachian State 1-1 178
    T71 -18 Rice 1-1 178
    T73 -16 UTSA 1-1 175
    T73 -1 FAU 0-2 175
    75 +5 Arkansas 1-1 173
    T76 +2 Baylor 1-1 172
    T76 +2 Sam Houston 1-1 172
    T76 +12 Georgia Southern 1-1 172
    79 +17 BYU 2-0 171
    80 +39 FIU 1-1 170
    81 +5 Cincinnati 1-1 169
    82 +22 Ohio 1-1 168
    T83 +7 Mississippi State 1-1 167
    T83 -1 South Alabama 0-2 167
    T85 +11 ECU 2-0 164
    T85 -18 USF 1-1 164
    T87 -6 Coastal Carolina 2-0 163
    T87 -31 UCLA 1-0 163
    T89 -5 Arkansas State 2-0 162
    T89 -28 Hawaii 1-1 162
    T89 +14 Wake Forest 1-1 162
    T92 -4 Vanderbilt 2-0 160
    T92 +17 Virginia 2-0 160
    94 +16 Army 2-0 159
    95 -27 Texas Tech 1-1 158
    T96 +22 Navy 2-0 156
    T96 +9 Tulane 1-1 156
    T98 +14 Eastern Michigan 1-1 153
    T98 +0 Charlotte 0-2 153
    100 +14 San Jose State 2-0 150
    101 -7 UNT 2-0 149
    T102 -3 James Madison 2-0 148
    T102 -11 Stanford 1-1 148
    104 +2 Marshall 1-1 146
    105 +2 Troy 0-2 145
    106 -32 NC State 1-1 141
    107 +22 UL Monroe 2-0 140
    108 -15 Georgia State 1-1 136
    109 -18 Western Michigan 0-2 134
    110 -11 Jacksonville State 0-2 133
    111 +0 Air Force 1-1 132
    T112 -36 Purdue 1-0 130
    T112 +5 New Mexico State 1-1 130
    114 -27 Wyoming 0-2 128
    115 -32 Utah State 1-1 127
    116 +7 UMass 0-2 126
    117 +7 Tulsa 1-1 125
    118 -19 Western Kentucky 1-1 124
    119 -4 UAB 1-1 122
    120 -4 Akron 0-2 116
    121 -14 Colorado State 1-1 115
    122 -10 New Mexico 0-2 114
    123 -2 Central Michigan 1-1 109
    T124 -2 UConn 1-1 106
    T124 +1 San Diego State 1-1 106
    126 -1 Southern Miss 1-1 101
    127 -2 Buffalo 1-1 98
    128 -9 Middle Tennessee 1-1 97
    129 +1 Kent State 0-2 92
    130 +1 UTEP 0-2 90
    131 -3 Ball State 1-0 86
    132 +1 Temple 0-2 81
    133 +1 Kennesaw State 0-2 80
    134 -2 Louisiana Tech 1-0 73




  • The cowards ranked NIU!

    But a lot of these seem suspect given the results yesterday. How do OK St and KSU move up? Related, why did Tulane stop receiving votes, especially since they pushed KSU around most of the game? Notre Dame doesn’t fall farther (or out completely)? Alabama doesn’t slide a little for messing around with USF (the final score does not tell the story of how that game went)?

    And I feel like there’s not enough credit given to Nebraska (who took it easy on CU), Clemson (shouldn’t be punished too much for falling to #1 UGA), and Illinois (who beat a pretty good Kansas squad).

    Voters just peeping the box score and relying on name brands, as is tradition


















  • Updated the banner and sidebar!

    I see I’m catching a lot of flack here for my computer poll (and understandably so), to which I say: vote in the poll! The more participants, the more my funky algorithm gets drowned out. I will say, I did tweak it this year to further devalue preseason expectations, but I can’t let it just stand on 1.5 weeks of data. Preseason expectations get fully flushed out after week 4.

    Also, because the transfer portal makes it so hard to get a read on rosters early in the season, I outsourced the returning production variable to Action Network’s metric. It worked pretty well last year, but I’m not sure they’re on the mark this year. If anyone has a better source (that is free or cheap), I’m willing to give it a try for next year.