according to the US intelligence agencies, Iran wasn’t even close to enrich uranium enough to even think about making a weapon out of it. Iranian social post comments in 2100 will more likely be “hey, remember when the yanks bombed an empty desert and called it a success?” And they all laugh whole-heartedly and knees slapping
That’s actually scarier. We know for a fact there used to be nuclear facilities there, the locations weren’t secret. So, if it turns out that “the yanks bombed an empty desert and called it a success”, then it means those photos of trucks a few days ago were the Iranians moving not only the enriched uranium but also all their research and enriching machinery. Everything.
According to this May BBC article, the delay in producing a bomb wouldn’t be in enriching the uranium, but in getting a functioning bomb to put it in:
US officials estimate that, if Iran chooses to pursue a weapon, it could produce weapons-grade material in less than two weeks and potentially build a bomb within months.
Iran can convert its current stock of 60 percent enriched uranium into 233 kg of weapon-grade uranium (WGU) in three weeks at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP), enough for 9 nuclear weapons, taken as 25 kg of WGU per weapon.
Iran could produce its first quantity of 25 kg of WGU in Fordow in as little as two to three days.
So, if the US attack didn’t destroy Iran’s uranium stock and it’s enrichment facilities, then we have to hope they’re correct about Iran needing months to build a bomb.
The problem is, that estimate assumes that Iran hasn’t started developing weapons yet. Things that make me nervous about that assumption are:
Iran managed to successfully hide their previous nuclear weapons development programme (Amad Project) from 1989 to 2002.
The project was made public in August 2002 by the NCRI (an exiled coalition of Iranian opposition parties). Iran claimed it was purely scientific research, but a lot of evidence has cropped up since disproving that statement. Old news, but the point is, no-one knew about it at the time.
In Feb 2023, IAEA inspectors found uranium particles enriched to 83.7%, from two cascades of IR-6 centrifuges that had been configured in a way “substantially different” to what had been previously declared.
According to Iran, these were due to ‘unintended fluctuations’ in enrichment levels that may have occurred during the transition period.
On 10 June, the NCRI - yes, the same opposition parties - released a statement claiming that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons through a new program called the “Kavir Plan”. According to them, the new project started in 2009 and involves six sites working on warheads and related technology i.e. working on the bit that US Officials said could take a few months.
The last point hasn’t been verified by anyone else, so maybe it’s not true. Maybe the NCRI simply want to start a war that will topple the current regime. We can hope, right?
OK, well, I’ve now completely depressed myself 🫤 Sorry, probably more information than you wanted too. I’ll show myself out now.
according to the US intelligence agencies, Iran wasn’t even close to enrich uranium enough to even think about making a weapon out of it. Iranian social post comments in 2100 will more likely be “hey, remember when the yanks bombed an empty desert and called it a success?” And they all laugh whole-heartedly and knees slapping
That’s actually scarier. We know for a fact there used to be nuclear facilities there, the locations weren’t secret. So, if it turns out that “the yanks bombed an empty desert and called it a success”, then it means those photos of trucks a few days ago were the Iranians moving not only the enriched uranium but also all their research and enriching machinery. Everything.
According to this May BBC article, the delay in producing a bomb wouldn’t be in enriching the uranium, but in getting a functioning bomb to put it in:
The Institute for Science and International Security concluded similarly that:
So, if the US attack didn’t destroy Iran’s uranium stock and it’s enrichment facilities, then we have to hope they’re correct about Iran needing months to build a bomb.
The problem is, that estimate assumes that Iran hasn’t started developing weapons yet. Things that make me nervous about that assumption are:
The project was made public in August 2002 by the NCRI (an exiled coalition of Iranian opposition parties). Iran claimed it was purely scientific research, but a lot of evidence has cropped up since disproving that statement. Old news, but the point is, no-one knew about it at the time.
In Feb 2023, IAEA inspectors found uranium particles enriched to 83.7%, from two cascades of IR-6 centrifuges that had been configured in a way “substantially different” to what had been previously declared. According to Iran, these were due to ‘unintended fluctuations’ in enrichment levels that may have occurred during the transition period.
On 10 June, the NCRI - yes, the same opposition parties - released a statement claiming that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons through a new program called the “Kavir Plan”. According to them, the new project started in 2009 and involves six sites working on warheads and related technology i.e. working on the bit that US Officials said could take a few months.
The last point hasn’t been verified by anyone else, so maybe it’s not true. Maybe the NCRI simply want to start a war that will topple the current regime. We can hope, right?
OK, well, I’ve now completely depressed myself 🫤 Sorry, probably more information than you wanted too. I’ll show myself out now.