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Cake day: May 16th, 2024

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  • The development of PRC’s chip industry is not guaranteed to go on a exponential curve.

    There are inherently some disincentives to PRC’s approach to managing their chip industry, lots of money chasing limited productive projects (you can bet some opportunistic people in China are going to try and piggyback the money faucet). Essentially no-bid type contracts that are going to create a culture of stagnation (at least partially). Lack of a broad customer base (e.g. Apple essentially bankrolling new nodes at TSMC); global demand will always be way bigger and more sophisticated than China, Russia and Iran.

    Then you also have technical limitations like lack of access to hardware from ASML, more limited (and less competitive) tooling and design ecosystem.