Without evidence, the Republican vice presidential candidate tried to cast doubt on his opponentās obvious momentum: āIf you talk to insiders in the Kamala Harris campaign, theyāre very worried about where they areā
Youāve heardĀ Donald Trump cryĀ āfakenewsā too many times to count, and now his running mate is claiming ā without evidence ā that the media is using āfake pollsā to show Vice PresidentĀ Kamala Harris is in the lead in the presidential race.
In an interview onĀ Fox News Sunday, Sen.Ā J.D. Vance alleged that āThe media uses fake polls to drive down Republican turnout and to create dissension and conflict with Republican voters.ā
High quality pollings (Gallup, Ipsos, various university polling groups) are consistently reliable within the margin of error. Thereās no point in being afraid or dismissive of them.
There are plenty of people who are disinterested or uninformed. They arenāt naturally malicious simply because they donāt religiously follow political news. Lots of them donāt even know if theyāre going to vote until early voting starts, and even then only vote as part of their family or social group rather than because they have an emotional attachment to one of the parties.
The regional nature of voting tends to mean that if youāre too shy to express your views, you arenāt in the majority anyway. Its the guy who answers the phone in a MAGA hat and shouts āHell yeah Iām voting fer Trump!ā that you have to worry about, not the one who is too shy to whisper support for RFK Jr down the line.
This isnāt telling you to not be confident or to be scared, this is telling you to not assume victory is assured. Vote regardless of polling. Polling can be accurate or not. If the polling is accurate, and a majority would vote for A, but A is so far ahead of B that A-voters sit out the race, B can still win if enough voters choose to stay home.
Who looks at a 50/48 polling split and thinks victory is assured? Thatās still within the margin of error and it doesnāt even include battleground swings.
But if it was 60/40? Yeah, Iād feel pretty assured. Youād be a fool not to.
People keep talking about this like it ever actually happens? Name one candidate that lost an election because the polling was too favorable.