Vladimir Putin has “made a decision” and there will be “severe punishment” following Ukraine’s incursion into Russia, according to the Russian ambassador to the US.
Mr Putin was clearly frustrated at the Ukrainian incursion, but a ruthless Russian military response was only one option. Ukraine is short of military capability - soldiers and weapons - and it appears that they have deployed up to 10,000 soldiers (probably battle-hardened) into Russian territory. This “fixes” these Ukrainian forces well away from the frontline Russian action in the Donbas.
Mr Putin knows that progress on the frontline will slow when winter arrives, so his forces have perhaps 10 to 12 weeks remaining to achieve the objectives of his so-called Special Military Operation. By focusing on Russian main effort in the Donbas, Mr Putin knows that Ukraine has diluted the forces available to resist the Russian assault towards Pokrovsk, which might enable greater progress in the limited time available.
Once Russia’s objectives in the Donbas have been achieved, Mr Putin might consider that he can address the Kursk incursion in slower time.
What could ‘severe punishment’ mean?
Peace deals don’t matter as they were never going to happen and like the Minsk agreements were just a delaying tactic, an attempt to stall, maybe try and get an armistice to allow Ukraine to regroup. The west wasn’t going to settle for a loss until they’ve used up nearly every Ukrainian as fodder or Ukraine was suffering a complete collapse of their front and even then they want terms that make them look better like holding onto some territory that’s part of Russia now or getting into NATO, not signing neutrality, etc.
But I agree whatever terms Ukraine can get are getting worse and worse. And part of me thinks that’s the point from the west’s point of view, it gives them more motive to fight on which is what the west wants.